“We geologists think in time-scales of millions of years”


What Nagra does almost has the ring of science fiction, says its CEO, Matthias Braun, in the third issue of the Magazine of the Century “500m+”. But this “science fiction” is based on hard facts – and on swarm intelligence.

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Matthias Braun, you have been tasked with a project that requires incredible stamina. It will take decades for a deep geological repository to be built – but once it exists, it will exist forever. What about this appeals to you?
The fact that it presents an incredible challenge. It is nearly inconceivable that anything created by humans can be expected to last for one million years. That is 200 times longer than the pyramids have been standing!

Were you aware of what you were getting yourself into?
Was ich zu Anfang unterschätzt habe und was ich mittlerweile extrem schätze, ist die Breite dieser Aufgabe. Sie geht von der Klärung von juristischen Fragen, von Gesetzestexten bis zur Mikrobiologie, sie geht über jede Teildisziplin der Geologie bis in den Tunnelbau hinein. Es gibt Aspekte im politischen Leben, es gibt Aspekte in der Finanzierung. Eine wahnsinnig weit gefasste Aufgabe, die man mit relativ wenigen Leuten lösen muss; wir sind gut 100 extrem spezialisierte Menschen, die zusammenarbeiten, die etwas Integriertes generieren müssen. Ich glaube, am Schluss kommen gute Ideen durch Schwarmintelligenz.

As CEO of this swarm intelligence – what does your daily job entail?
I see myself as the glue that holds everything together. I am in a privileged position that allows me to recognise certain patterns and give the occasional little nudge to keep things moving on in the right direction.

The most important issue for many people is, of course, the safety of the deep geological repository. How do you handle this?
The facts are one thing; this aspect is actually relatively simple. There are studies that provide numbers, and these tell you what’s what. We have identified the safest site. So safety concerns don’t keep me awake at night. But you have to somehow fuse science and emotion, take into account the mindset of the population, certain fears, a general unease, and that is where things get interesting. It is not enough to communicate technical and scientific facts with a certain humility, we also need to help people to process these facts and come to grips with them. How best to accomplish that is our biggest challenge.

What does keep you awake at night?
Other safety-related aspects. Operational safety, for example, during construction, with regard to traffic, construction processes or the repository itself. Such things are not just based on science, but also on human behaviour, on rules. This brings us back to the question of why we are building a deep geological repository in the first place. The answer is: because it is easier for us to predict how geology will evolve over the next one million years than to foresee what we humans will do within the next twenty years.

“I am in a privileged position”: Nagra CEO Matthias Braun appreciates the broad scope of his task.
Podcast of the Century

Are you more of a listener than a reader?


1 o7a8113This interview was conducted as part of the third issue of the Magazine of the Century “500m+” from Nagra. Hannes Hug interviewed the protagonists at Nagra’s meeting point in Stadel – the community where the surface facility for the deep geological repository is to be constructed.

Ten exciting discussions provide new perspectives on the deep geological repository. You can listen to the Podcast of the Century (Jahrhundertpodcast, in German) on the website of The Magazine of the Century or wherever podcasts are available.

 

Is the repository the best option given the possibilities we have today with regard to the near and distant future?
We have looked at many alternative ideas. There is a broad international scientific consensus that deep geological disposal in a geologically stable rock formation offers, at least for the time being, the best solution.

This repository will probably still exist longer than Switzerland as we know it today. What do you think our landscape will look like a few thousand years from now?
I can only speculate about what it will look like in a few million years. We geologists think in timescales of millions of years. A few thousand years from now, the landscape probably won’t look that much different from today. We can safely assume that the Rhine will still flow along its course, that the Alps will still be where they are today and that the Jura Mountains will still exist. Further into the future, however, a lot can happen: we are scientifically certain that there will be further ice ages, and Switzerland will be covered in ice. In addition, it could well be that rivers will change their course. Or, a very crazy scenario, but one that has already happened in the past, is that the Mediterranean could dry out. That would cause a one-thousand-metre-high waterfall to form near Marseille, and this will in turn lead to reverse erosion, meaning that the Rhone could widen again. Its water might then suddenly flow back into the Mediterranean. Such notions are all conceivable for the distant future. They may sound like science fiction, but it is precisely our job to play out such scenarios so that we are in a position to say: yes, this deep geological repository will remain safe no matter what.

We are conducting this interview in the centre of Stadel, the community within whose boundaries we will construct the deep geological repository. How do you plan on getting everyone on board?
I believe mainly through intensive dialogue. And in the end, of course, we also have to be realistic: it is impossible to succeed in getting everyone on board. But I would say that the conditions here are very good because we talk to each other and we have come to know each other. And as long as we continue to talk to each other and get to know each other even better, we are on the right track.

I have noticed that relatively few people tend to turn up at information events. Does that frustrate you a little?
I think we have to remain realistic. First of all, the repository is still a topic of the distant future, and secondly, it is not the biggest problem facing humanity. In addition, how much attention the project draws changes from phase to phase. I think we should talk to those who are interested right now, interested in the current stage of the project. Perhaps others will be interested in the next stage. One of the main lessons a geologist learns is that the world is dynamic. Things grow, things collapse, the Alps formed at some point, and one day, the Alps will be no more. And I believe that these dynamics, this agility, are also a sign of progress.

There is a shoe box in front of you. I would like to ask you to pick out a piece of paper. There will be a question on it.
I picked “Will this issue resolve itself?” (laughs) There is a famous management rule: the best approach is to do nothing at all. Most problems simply solve themselves. As a geologist, you might be inclined to believe that everything will take care of itself, as long as you are willing to wait long enough. (laughs) I think the greatest skill is knowing when to take action and when to let things be.

Finally, one last question that I ask everyone I interview: if you could leave a message in the deep geological repository, some kind of suggestion, or maxim, whatever: what would you write in your note?
I think I would ask a question, something like: “Now that you have found this repository, what does it look like?” We are considering all these scenarios, we are protecting ourselves against all these possibilities, but what will it really be like? The solution to the riddle, so to speak. I would like to know how the story will end.

“Now that you have found this repository, what does it look like?”: The Nagra CEO would love to know what exactly the deep geological repository will look like one million years from now.

Matthias Braun was born in 1968, grew up in Basel and studied physical chemistry and mineralogy. He worked for oil companies in Italy, the UK, the Netherlands and the Middle East for many years and has been CEO of Nagra for almost four years.

Photos: Maurice Haas

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